While the means by which state and non-state actors conduct hybrid war today have changed, the fundamental principle of utilizing a combination of conventional and irregular methods to achieve a political objective is consistent with older forms of conflict. This blending has historic examples in the American Revolution with George Washington’s Continental Army and robust militia forces; the Napoleonic Wars where British regulars challenged French control of major Spanish cities, while Spanish guerrillas attacked their lines of communication; and the Arab Revolt where the British Army combined conventional operations in Palestine with irregular forces under British operational control. However, despite having its roots in history, modern hybrid war has the potential to transform the strategic calculations of potential belligerents due to the rise of non-state actors, information technology, and the proliferation of advanced weapons systems.

In January 2001, a Predator launched an inert Hellfire missile at a dummy tank, marking the first successful missile test from a drone. Twenty years on, drones have become a feature of warfare to an extent that few at the time likely could have imagined. Over 100 militaries have some level of armed or unarmed drone capability, and a growing number have experience using these systems in combat. The notion of what an armed drone looks like and how it should perform has also shifted as the families of drones and drone munitions have become lighter and more diverse. This is fueling a wider adoption of these systems, potentially complicating the United States’ ability to develop effective countermeasures.

The term hybrid warfare has been in use since for about two decades

On April 27, personnel with the Israel Defense Forces downed a drone that crossed into the country from Lebanon. They also found a second drone “belonging to the Hezbollah terrorist organization” that had been taken down in early April, according to an IDF statement. It was the latest Israeli targeting of a drone — yet more evidence of an emerging threat that Israel is looking to counter.

It is not inconceivable that by the 2040s, much of the fighting will be done by the robots, with their human masters kept well behind harm’s way.